Excitement over the revolution in Egypt is tempered with worries that old autocrats will be replaced by new ones. The Middle East has no tradition of democratic institutions. Why so? There are many reasons, but we will focus on the shallowness of the Middle East’s colonisation. Britain and France directly ruled colonies in Asia and Africa, creating institutions that sometimes (though by no means always) helped usher in democracy.

But the colonial powers merely controlled the Middle East through subservient monarchs, and did not rule these directly. So, these never developed liberal institutions, and made the Middle East relatively infertile ground for democracy.

Several countries of the region have attained upper middle income status: per capita income exceeding $3,850. Political theorists argue that this will lead to ultimately irresistible demands for democracy from a rising middle class (as happened in Korea and Taiwan). But this has not quite happened in the Middle East. Euphoria over the overthrow of the Shah of Iran faded when he was succeeded by tyrannical mullahs.

Nobody expects an exact replay of that in Egypt, yet military or theocratic rule loom as possibilities. True democracy looks a fragile hope rather than confident expectation. The Middle East is much richer than Asia. India, Pakistan Bangladesh and Sri Lanka all developed democratic roots of varying strength while they were poor. Within Africa, Botswana and Mauritius became and stayed democratic when they were very poor. Why is the Middle East an exception?

You might think that European colonial influence, which brought in notions of democracy, liberty, equality and fraternity, would have impacted the Middle East as much as Asia. The Middle East was run by the Ottoman Empire until World War I. After that, Britain and France took over the these parts of the Ottoman Empire, creating new countries ranging from French-controlled Syria and Lebanon to British-controlled Palestine, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The British also controlled Egypt from the late 19th century to 1952.

Such imperial control without direct rule made a big difference. In India, the British Raj brought in institutions such as accountability of rulers (Clive and Warren Hastings were impeached), an independent judiciary, a free press (subject to some censorship), and substantial civil liberties (though tainted by racism). During the Quit India movement, some Indian student agitators avoided arrest by taking refuge in university campuses, where, by tradition, the police did not or were reluctant to enter. This would be unthinkable in an autocracy.

The British looted, plundered and raped like all earlier conquerors. But they also brought some institutions of the European Enlightenment. In a few cases, like India, these institutions had strong roots by Independence. In other places, especially Africa, the roots were very shallow.