Obama’s India trip: A review and a postmortem
Khabar, November 20, 2010
Now that the dust has settled on Obama’s India trip, here’s looking at its most prescient moments, and deciphering its lasting impact.
The state visit by President Barack Obama to India on Nov 6-8 was certainly needed. And it was crucial that the visit deliver. It did spectacularly.
The background
Over the past two years, opinion in India and even in sections of the US was getting concerned by a perceived drift and rather non-attention to its India relationship by the US administration. Though Obama hosted the first state dinner of his presidency in DC last November in honor of India’s Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, yet it was largely seen as more on symbolisms and less on deliverables.
Additionally, President Obama had then returned from a state visit to Beijing barely two weeks earlier, and the Obama-Hu joint statement issued from Beijing invited China to play a role in South Asian security – something which is anathema to Indian strategic policy. Whatsoever may have been U.S.’s reasons for such a China policy, it was seen as a slight to India.
Subsequent to the Manmohan Singh visit, the impression further kept growing that the U.S. is not investing sufficiently in its India policy. It is in this background that the Obama trip to India was important.
In the months and weeks leading up to the visit, there was a flurry of activity – especially to identify some “big bang” issue which would take the relationship of both countries to a next higher level, plus which could erase the gathering worry in India, and among friends of India that if something substantial did not come from this visit, then US – India relations may seriously start to deteriorate.
Recent irritants
Apart from issues on which there are gaps in Indian and U.S. foreign policies, especially related to Pakistan, and AfPak, three issues had been building up as irritants which were clouding the trust element between the countries in the immediate lead up to the Obama visit. These three issues were:
- Richard Headley Case. India believes the U.S. has not cooperated fully on the Headley case. Especially by not informing about Headley’s trips to India even after 26/11, when Indian authorities could have arrested him.
- Nuclear Commerce. U.S. suppliers are uneasy about India’s Nuclear Liability Bill which was passed by the Indian parliament in August. With US having helped India to emerge from its nuclear winter, U.S. business feels that it must get a fair piece of the nuclear market in India. Certain clauses of the liability bill are contentious – and India has expressed its inability to amend the law.
- Outsourcing. The political rhetoric against outsourcing in the U.S., especially in the weeks leading up to the Congressional elections, plus the hike in H1 visa fees combined to make outsourcing a hot-potato issue in India.
Of the three, by the time Obama left from India, the issue of outsourcing had been substantially mellowed down, while on the Headley case, and the nuclear liability bill extended engagements will continue.
The visit
Obama’s visit was exceedingly well choreographed by his managers. On Saturday, the first working day of his visit, Obama’s address to the business community in Mumbai created big positive news – with an announcement of over US$ 10 billion dollar deals with Indian companies. Obama could report back home that these deals will support over 50,000 jobs. The news created sudden awareness in the US that India can help create large number of jobs, and also blunted the attacks that India is not only about outsourcing.
With the business component of the visit done, and well, Obama then moved onto the cultural, social, and policy agenda. On Sunday, his town hall meeting with college students at St. Xaviers in Mumbai, and the images of the first lady and president dancing with school children earlier made for good imagery. A question by a student at the town hall – who asked why the US hasn’t declared Pakistan as a failed state so far – gave Obama a glimpse of the tough discussions which awaited him in Delhi on his AfPak policy.
The previous day, when he had paid a tribute to the victims of 26/11 attacks at the Taj Mumbai, he did not mention Pakistan, and combined with his rather circuitous answer to the student’s question, it had observers and media on their sharpest awaiting his press conference and parliament address in Delhi the next day.
Obama’s arrival to Mumbai on Saturday, the day after Diwali festival, ensured that his engagements in Mumbai on Saturday and Sunday got maximum exposure. People were mostly home on the holiday weekend – with all TV channels virtually dedicating their entire programming to the coverage of his visit.
Obama’s continuing references to Mahatma Gandhi in Mumbai, and then later in his address to Indian parliament were a refrain that showed him to be a man who genuinely believed and respected Gandhi – something which won him many hearts in the country.
Landing in Delhi on Sunday afternoon, Obama was greeted at the airport by Manmohan Singh and his wife – in a break from protocol. The dinner on Sunday evening hosted by the PM was an exclusive affair, and importantly gave a chance for a 45-minute private, one-on-one discussion between Singh and Obama before the dinner. This private meeting would have touched on key aspects of U.S.-India relationship, and world affairs, as well build further the personal relationship of the two leaders.
Official meetings on Monday and a joint press conference by the two leaders around noon were awaited with much interest in India. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration had started mentioning about India’s seat at the UN Security Council in their press statements over the past few days.
Thus, it did seem that the US had something up its sleeve. It also made common sense. Had Obama not made the announcement about UNSC seat in his speech to the parliament on Monday evening, the entire visit would have fallen flat as far as India was concerned.
The joint press conference on Monday afternoon evoked again not very clear and firm replies on Pakistan, UNSC seat – and Obama asked the media to wait till his speech at the parliament in the evening. Thus, US was systematically building up the hype and expectations from the speech.
Obama’s speech to the parliament was excellent – in oratory, and substance. And then he announced US unequivocal support for India as a permanent member of the UNSC. And touching on Pakistan he announced that terrorist havens will not be allowed in Pakistan.
By announcing US support for India at the UNSC in the Indian parliament, in one bold stroke Obama took US-India relations to an altogether new frontier while winning applauds from India.
The morning after
While the visit has been an outstanding success, and US India relations are now in a new phase, observers in both India and the US realize that much work will need to be done, and the relationship will not be without differences of opinions and divergence of interests in the years and decades ahead.
While supporting India at the UNSC, the US will expect India to align on issues like sanctions on Iran, and other such global developments. India may not be fully comfortable doing that.
Another big and unresolved area is defense. With large needs of modernization of India’s defense sector, the US is eager that it become India’s preferred supplier. Along with the market, the US would like India to work closely on regional matters. On both counts, there is significant hesitation in India. Several military pacts, for inter-operability of forces, and logistical support were not signed even though the US administration tried hard to achieve closure on these agreements.
Going forward, this may become a bigger irritant – especially if the US tries to promote large ticket defense deals to India, since it is only large defense deals which can create 5-10,000 jobs at a single shot in the US. With a weakening economy the US administration may come under pressure to accelerate large ticket defense deals to India, and if India continues to hesitate and move slowly that could create frustrations on the US side. Both countries need to very carefully examine this matter.
Obama also announced removal of high-tech sanctions on some Indian organizations – including the Indian space agency, ISRO, and the defense R&D establishment, the DRDO. Though significant and a good step, yet there are some other entities who remain on the black-list, and once again the matter or trust arises. In order for tangible trade in high-tech there must be efforts made by the U.S. to establish its credibility as a stable supplier, without any cloud of sanctions in future.
Though by lifting the sanctions, and by inviting India for the first time ever to a meeting with Nuclear Weapon States to discuss disarmament, Obama continued to hit the right buttons in India.
In contrast to the contentious topics, other areas of cooperation where the two countries had discussions and plan to make significant progress include education and agriculture. A high level education summit is being planned at Delhi for early next year with Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, and other collaborations are being discussed. Obama was accompanied by several university presidents during the visit.
In agriculture, the two countries are firstly looking at food security – not only in India, but also in South Asia region, and African continent. Obama administration realizes that to fight the breeding grounds of terror in the AfPak region it also needs to address food security and poverty in these areas. Other collaborations envisaged are in using satellites for weather forecasting and flood warnings.
Whither the unspoken?
The opto-politics of the world today, and more so for the US and India for their each reasons, is incomplete without China. Obama’s trip in any case had China on the agenda during his subsequent meetings at Seoul – to convince a revaluation of the yuan. The US is also looking to diversify its procurements from China, so that the Chinese challenge does not keep growing its leverage with the US. India as a mass manufacturer could help in some re-balancing.
India’s issues with China while mostly bilateral, are also regional. Apart from machinations on India’s eastern borders, China which occupies a part of Kashmir, ceded to it by Pakistan, plays a role in the AfPak theatre. Obama’s wars in AfPak region will not succeed unless China vacates the Kashmir regions which it occupies along with Pakistan.
If Kashmir matter has to be resolved, which the US administration believes is key to its success in Afghanistan, then the regions occupied by Pakistan and China must be made peaceful, violence free, democratic, and economically developed. One hopes that these matters must have been discussed in the private one-on-one which Singh and Obama had.
In a subtle reference to the Chinese matrix, Obama in his speech at the parliament said that India must not only “look East”, but also “engage the East”. Maritime disputes provoked by China are riling countries from Japan to Vietnam, and the US needs India’s heft to counter the power games which China may be playing. In fact Obama’s trip to India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Japan was also touted as connecting an “arc of democracies” to shore up counters to China.
Big bangs are possible
With the civil nuclear deal done, and support announced for India’s seat at the UN Security Council, what could be any or some other big-bang items which could have a quantum and lasting impact on the economies of both countries, and on the global theatre? There are two clear projects which hold such grand potential.
Thorium dealA thorium partnership between the US and India will be even bigger in scope and ambition than the civil nuclear deal between the two countries. The US needs to get off fossil fuel dependency, and India has over 30% of world’s thorium reserves to use it as fuel to generate nuclear energy. However the technology is not industrial grade yet. A partnership could make thorium-based power a reality within 5-7 years. US could then have assured fuel supplies – and India can be the Saudi Arabia of 21st century.
Most importantly, using thorium as nuclear fuel will vastly mitigate the dangers of nuclear proliferation. Thorium (as opposed to uranium) fuel does not generate waste that can be used for the making of nuclear or dirty bombs. As the world moves to nuclear energy it is critical that atomic power plants in, say, Egypt, run on thorium rather than uranium.
Dr Anil Kakodkar, the immediate past chairman and doyen of India’s nuclear program, is passionately and urgently arguing that India and the world must immediately switch to thorium – for some of above stated reasons.
Space-based solar powerThe other compelling and visionary initiative is the NSS-Kalam initiative to generate space-based solar power. Simply speaking, the project will use satellites with huge solar panels to generate electricity, and transmit to locations on planet earth. On a very minor scale this is already happening – for example many satellites which beam the TV programming to our homes use solar energy to power their transmissions. NSS, the National Space Society of the US, and former President Abdul Kalam are championing this project.
While efforts were made to bring the thorium deal as an agenda item in the Obama meetings, the topic was not considered in official discussions. The coming months could see progress. Similarly, the NSS-Kalam initiative is planning a major conference early next year to promote action on the harnessing of space-based solar power.
Back to work
A range – from the mundane, to acrimonious, to the grand – of matters now confront the two countries as they embark on an unprecedented level of relationship. The Obama visit will go down as a landmark in the history of 21st century India.
Robinder Sachdev
The author is president of Imagindia Institute, www.imagindia.org
